Super El Nino and what effects we could see

[Aaronrob89]

I was just wondering if anyone in the industry is freaking out or did the switch to stronger chinese shellstock fix this issue?

 

[CortezPearls]

Well...I haven´t seen any news about this "Super Niño" in regard to pearl farming, but I've seen the surface water temperatures in the Gulf of California, and they are "to die for"...meaning: LETHAL for Rainbow Lips!
Then, there is also the matter of hurricanes/typhoons...we haven't seen any yet, but starting September we should see some forming up! Hurricanes are farm-busters!

 

[CortezPearls]

So, look a this image...this is the Gulf of California in Mexico.

Months of April to July of 2022 and 2023...
The red color means temps of at least 32 Celsius.

Used AI to get 2025 and 2026's temperatures according to NOAA's data. This year the surface temperature scaled up a notch to 33.5 C in Guaymas. That is both scary and ugly.

But as with everything: take things with a pinch of salt and wait & see...

 

[ennui]

take things with a pinch of salt

Knock knock.
Who’s there?
Margarita.*
Margarita who?
Margarita — take things with a pinch of salt… and a slice of lime.

(*Not to be confused with Pinctada margaritifera)

 

[jshepherd]

Enrique (Guaymas SoC) told me the water hit 33.7°C (92.66°F) this month. He said swimming is overwhelming because you can't release the body heat from the effort.

°C	Veranos​	Anual​	Min​	Max​
1994-2003​	30.57​	23.74​	14.0​	32.0​
2004-2013​	30.63​	23.50​	12.0​	32.1​
2014-2023​	31.18​	24.61​	14.7​	32.9​

 

[Pearl Dreams]

How do the oysters handle this elevated water temperature? Is there increased mortality?

 

[jshepherd]

It's a shock to the entire system. There is mortality, fewer spat, shell health ... I am sure the list goes on. Douglas has dealt with these directly, so he can give a much more detailed answer.

 

[CortezPearls]

How do the oysters handle this elevated water temperature? Is there increased mortality?

Exactly. They just DIE.
You see, there are many things caused by high temperatures:
1. Increased thermal stress. Which makes the oysters use energy to just survive.
2. Less algae found when temperatures are warm, thus there is less food and oysters starve.
3. Warmer water cannot have as much dissolved oxygen, thus there is a suffocation risk
4. Bacterial growth increases.
All these effects then work in tandem, thus creating a toxic circular effect that feeds itself...

Oysters die, bacteria feed on the carcass and deplete oxygen and produce more bacteria, and then again...fish are also dying, as well as birds because there is no food to give to the energetic cycle...

It is just a nightmare.