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The larger pearls the price is not depressed nor is the price depressed for as some refer to as hanadama.
The best goods never fluctuate and with the weak dollar may cost more.
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I think this really depends on how you buy. If you are looking for a top-gem lot only from a broker, they are bound to charge you a premium. But if you are buying mixed "A" lots which will export as A/B, there will be anywhere from 40-60% that will drill or set perfectly clean.
The volume is up in the smaller sizes because these are first-graft sizes and a few years ago there was more available shell for farmers to graft. The volume of second and third graft has dropped dramatically because the market prices cannot sustain the cost. With second and third grafts there is a lot more cost involved and the attrition rate is a lot higher. Also, the pearls produced typically have less luster and relatively poor color. Because volume is so low, market prices in larger sizes are going up. The market might even be starting to correct itself in that range.
As for the smaller sizes, the prices have fallen significantly. This crosses all quality scales as pearls are not initially sold in separated quality lots. They are sold just as they come out of the water; separated by shape and often size (8-10 mm lots and 11 mm+ lots), but the quality covers the gambit. Those prices have fallen and those prices translate to all grades. This is not as noticeable to US buyers as the value of the dollar has fallen as well.
For US buyers the prices have appeared to be somewhat stable. But that is not taking into account what is happening to the US dollar's value. The dollar has been dropping so prices on the smaller sizes have appeared stable, maybe even slightly lower than what they were just a year ago. That equals a significant drop.
At Poe Rava Nui the auction floor prices were in Euro. More than 90% of the pearls on auction were 8-10 mm lots (total range of 8 mm to 11 mm). The most heavily bid lots were the commercial lots C through D. The higher-quality lots did not receive a lot of bids except for the exceptional-color lots. Even though the floor prices were in Euro I found them very attractive. The export tax was already included. In the end we won seven A/B lots in round, medium dark and dark color without much competition. Other buyers told me they felt prices were about 20% lower than expected, and prices are usually higher at auction than they are at other venues.
On the flip side, we have had an incredibly difficult time securing lots of larger, 11 mm plus pearls. Over the last couple of months we have worked with a number of people in Tahiti and even Hong Kong trying to find them. We finally settled on two lots last week and paid about 25% more than we have historically. All together it only came to about 1000 pearls, half of which are going to back orders.